When you get hurt in a relationship, it’s tempting to close yourself off to prevent future pain. Similarly, the human reaction for any Australian fan given the state of the 2009 Ashes is to give up hope that we can somehow chase a further 466 runs over the next two days without losing ten wickets. It would be a world record run chase on a wicket that already looked like a 5th day pitch on day 2. It’s impossible. Can’t be done.
But Australia made it to stumps without loss, knocking up 80 runs off 20 overs. Time isn’t an issue. There will be no batting for a draw. All that matters is runs. Or more importantly, wickets. What would be required for Australia to make those runs would be the improbable combination of the pitch behaving itself, the Australians batting out of their skins, lucky umpiring decisions and the English bowlers having a five or six consecutive bad sessions. If England bowl full and straight at the stumps and extract any hint of movement, Australia won’t win. If the Australian top order make the slightest error, be it poor shot selection or a lapse in concentration, it’s over. If the pitch shows uneven bounce, even if the bounce doesn’t get us, the psychological effect will be deadly. If one or two dodgy umpire decisions rip into our top order, there’ll be no recovering. There’s just too much going against us.
But cricket fans think with the heart, not the head. So I can’t help myself – I can’t keep out hopeful visions of a 150 run partnership between Ponting and Clarke, followed by a 200 run partnership from Clarke and North. Improbable. Impossible. It’s never happened before. It can’t happen now. But I’ll be watching the game on tenterhooks. Just in case.

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